Georgia, which refuses to comply with EU recommendations, was recently again not invited to a European event – the Three Seas Initiative summit, while Azerbaijan was invited. Official Tbilisi expressed indignation and advised Brussels to look more closely at the map to assess the strategic role of Georgian seaports on the East-West global route. The President of Azerbaijan, who specially came to Tbilisi for this purpose, also recalled the importance of regional projects related to Europe for the South Caucasus. Ilham Aliyev gave analysts much to think about due to his unexpected personal meeting with billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who currently holds no state position. Does this mean that Georgian Dream will have to take concrete steps to improve relations with the West, especially since the ruling party has just lost practically its only serious ally in Europe in the person of Viktor Orbán? In Moscow, they have covered themselves and already threatened: if Georgia joins the EU, Russia will reintroduce the visa regime, stop air traffic, and ban Georgian wine. Supporters of the Georgian opposition during a protest in front of the parliament building in Tbilisi, Georgia, December 2, 2024. Photo: David Mdzinarishvili / EPA.A Geography Lesson The Three Seas Initiative (Trimarium) is a platform uniting countries between the Adriatic, Baltic, and Black Seas. In late March, the tenth summit of the Initiative was held in Zagreb, where issues of regional connectivity, infrastructure development, and energy security were discussed. Georgia was not invited. "It's hard not to smile when the EU talks about connectivity, holds events, but the main country ensuring connectivity is not invited. With such an approach, only Europe will lose," stated Maka Bochorishvili, head of the Georgian Foreign Ministry, regarding this matter. "Any speculation regarding Georgia's role is simply ignorance. If you look closely at the map, it's clear what role Georgia plays in the context of regional cooperation." Parliamentary summit of the Three Seas Initiative at the National and University Library in Zagreb, Croatia, March 25. Photo: Goran Stanzl / PIXSELL / Alamy / Scanpix / LETA.Against the backdrop of Europe's reluctance to invite the Georgian Foreign Minister, Maka Bochorishvili is not wasting time: according to the ministry's report, the chief Georgian diplomat spent the entire past year developing cooperation with Central Asian countries. "Last year, we visited Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan several times; we also plan visits to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to intensify cooperation with all five Central Asian countries. Azerbaijan recently joined this format, and it has become a cooperation format between six states. This is particularly important for us, as the transit role and function of Azerbaijan without Georgia are, of course, unthinkable," assured Maka Bochorishvili. The Foreign Minister did not mention that Georgia has not been invited to the Davos economic summit for the second year and was not welcomed at a key event like the EU enlargement forum last year. "In Brussels itself, they continue to insist that Georgia is only a candidate country for the EU on paper, as the government refuses to comply with EU recommendations. Orbán and Dodon Whom does Georgian Dream communicate with when it doesn't travel to Central Asia or host guests from there? In Europe, Hungary has been the main destination for Georgian Dream in the last two years – it is practically the only country where the Georgian government was received with genuine joy. The pleasure was mutual: Viktor Orbán was considered the main defender of Georgian Dream in Brussels. It was the Hungarian Prime Minister's position that prevented the EU from imposing sanctions against the Georgian leadership, including against the country's informal leader, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. In one year, the Georgian Foreign Minister met with her Hungarian counterpart Péter Szijjártó at least ten times – the same Szijjártó from whom, as it recently became known, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov demanded assistance in excluding members of Russian oligarchs' families from EU sanctions lists. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze in Budapest, Hungary, March 21, 2026. Photo: Zoltan Fischer / EPA.Georgian Dream, which even sent observers to the Hungarian elections, did not hide its support for Orbán. Georgian prime ministers have participated for years in the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), where Orbán, among other things, presented himself as a supporter of Donald Trump. The current Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze also attended this conference this year. There, he called Orbán a "patriot" whose election would allow Hungary and the entire EU to prosper. It seems that the forum itself will become a memory: Peter Magyar, Orbán's rival who won the election, stated that the government no longer intends to finance this conference from the state budget. "I believe the state should not have financed them in the first place – it was a crime," emphasized Magyar, adding, however, that CPAC could still come to Budapest, but at the expense of Orbán's Fidesz party or his allies' money. Previously, there were persistent rumors that Orbán received financial support from Georgia, but henceforth Georgian Dream and Ivanishvili are unlikely to finance Orbán's political activities. Immediately after his election defeat, Georgian Dream speakers expressed readiness to "cooperate with the new Hungarian authorities, with whom Georgia has mutual interests." At the same time, no one in Georgian Dream publicly mourned Orbán's loss. They even stopped repeating the thesis that without him, Hungary would be "broken under the pressure of Brussels." "Now, Dream hopes that Magyar will "continue a pragmatic policy," meaning Hungary's position on sanctions against Georgia will not change. If Orbán is a long-time associate of Georgian Dream, then in early April, new friends visited Tbilisi – parliamentarians from Moldova, exclusively from the pro-Russian opposition, without representatives from President Maia Sandu's ruling party "Action and Solidarity." The delegation was led by former Moldovan President Igor Dodon, who admitted to journalists that he had something to learn from Georgian Dream: "I think certain issues concerning national security could be an example for us to follow. Georgia is an example of defending national interests, which is why the [Moldovan] ruling party is boycotting this visit... Moldova will not survive without neutrality. As for the European Union, we must negotiate, but there are issues where Georgia's and Moldova's interests converge... For example, we should not have joined the sanctions [against Russia] – you didn't join, and you have 10% economic growth, we joined – and we have minus 0.5%. Another issue is traditional values, here you have a firm stance..." It would be fair to note that no one from Georgian Dream was eager to pose for cameras next to Dodon. Georgian deputies, caught by journalists, justified themselves by saying that the host had not specially invited anyone and that Chișinău "decided for themselves who would go to Tbilisi." However, the opposition noted that Dodon came to Tbilisi directly from Moscow, "which means he could have brought some message from Putin." A week later, however, everyone forgot about Dodon, as Ilham Aliyev unexpectedly arrived in Tbilisi on April 7. Azerbaijan as the New Regional Leader Although Azerbaijan is deservedly called Georgia's "strategic partner number one," Ilham Aliyev last visited Georgia a long time ago, in October 2023, when a different prime minister was in office. Aliyev's unannounced visit did not seem as routine as the frequent visits of Georgian prime ministers to Baku. The visit seemed urgent, and the Azerbaijani delegation was very representative: ministers of foreign affairs, economy, and transport. It is understandable that infrastructure was discussed first and foremost, as cargo transportation from Azerbaijan to Georgia has been growing significantly each year. It is worth recalling here that both Baku and Yerevan often complain about delays in transportation through Georgian territory precisely now, when Azerbaijan and Armenia have begun to exchange goods for the first time in 30 years. At a briefing, Aliyev unambiguously reminded that Azerbaijan has already invested $3.6 billion in Georgia's economy and emphasized "new investment projects and opportunities." Amidst the military actions in Iran, the President of Azerbaijan called for maintaining focus on "peace, stability, and security" in the region, and also thanked the Georgian leadership "for their assistance" in reconciling Baku and Yerevan. Although all the protocol formalities of the official visit were observed, the most important part was Ilham Aliyev's meeting with Bidzina Ivanishvili. The President of Azerbaijan was invited to the billionaire's Tbilisi residence near the Botanical Garden. The silent protocol footage published that day showed Ivanishvili introducing Georgian government ministers to Aliyev at his private residence, showing him the surrounding views through stained-glass windows, and engaging in a lively conversation over lunch. Prime Minister Kobakhidze awkwardly but obediently followed Aliyev and Ivanishvili like a shadow. Ivanishvili was Prime Minister of Georgia for only one year and resigned voluntarily 13 years ago. He is currently the honorary chairman of the ruling party and holds no official positions. However, no one doubts that it is Ivanishvili who truly runs the country. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and President of Georgia Mikheil Kavelashvili before a meeting in Tbilisi, Georgia, April 6, 2026. Photo: Irakli Gedenidze / REUTERS / Scanpix / LETA.A "home" reception at Ivanishvili's during an official state visit – this seems to have happened for the first time and only emphasized the seriousness of the situation. Most likely, this meeting took place at the request of Ilham Aliyev himself. For Ivanishvili, such attention from the Azerbaijani leader is also of interest, observers are confident. "After all, if Georgia has lost its status as a strategic partner of the USA, then Azerbaijan has just secured it and has effectively become the main pillar of the States in the South Caucasus. At the same time, Azerbaijan maintains a principled yet stable position regarding Russia. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia, unlike Georgia, are now engaged in implementing the "Trump Route" (TRIPP – Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity), a 40 km transport route that will pass through Armenia and connect Azerbaijan with its exclave – Nakhchivan. Azerbaijan calls this direction the Zangezur corridor, and Armenia calls it the Syunik corridor. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently announced that, "despite the complex international situation," the processes around the TRIPP project are "not only not slowing down but, on the contrary, are gaining momentum in their implementation." Ilham Aliyev also recently reported on the "Trump Route" and stated that the highway included in the project is 90% ready, and the railway is 70% ready. Aliyev also added that the construction of the Kars-Nakhchivan railway has begun in Turkey: "Thus, the interaction and coordinated implementation of these projects will open a new important international corridor." Although Georgia is not included in the "Trump Route," Azerbaijan, through Georgia, is carrying out a global project for the transportation of oil and gas to Europe. There is also a project worth €3.5 billion, in which Georgia and Azerbaijan plan to participate under the EU flag together with Romania and Hungary – this is Black Sea Energy, a 1195-kilometer underwater electricity cable laid on the seabed of the Black Sea. " In the first stage, the cable's capacity is designed for exporting 4 GW of energy. The European Commission intends to allocate €2.3 billion for the underwater cable and has already assigned the project the status of PMI – "Project of Common Interest." The fact that the official visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Yerlan Koshanbayev, followed immediately after Aliyev's arrival in Georgia, becomes another argument for observers that Ivanishvili will often be reminded that Georgia is an important corridor for Caspian energy resources. Founder of the Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili, Tbilisi, Georgia, October 26, 2024. Photo: David Mdzinarishvili / EPA. - "Much indicates that Ivanishvili is playing with Russia, and therefore fears it, appearing in public behind armored glass, although no one threatens him except the Russian Federation," believes political scientist Paata Zakareishvili. "In the near future, we will see if Ivanishvili is ready to openly confront Russia, as Pashinyan does, for example, when defending Armenia's interests. He will certainly not behave like that, but perhaps he will "pull the chestnuts out of the fire" through Azerbaijan." Political scientist Gela Vasadze told "Novaya-Europe" that the South Caucasus, after the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, is beginning to act as an independent region. According to him, the key issue now is Georgia's participation in common transport and economic projects. He explains Aliyev's visit and his meeting with Ivanishvili by this: it is important for Azerbaijan to understand whether Georgia is ready to integrate into the new regional configuration and maintain ties with Europe. Moscow Raises the Stakes By this point, relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, which went through a difficult period last year, have been fully normalized – not least because Baku has further strengthened its position in the region, while Moscow, on the contrary, has significantly weakened. Perhaps Aliyev tried to share his confidence in relations with Moscow with Ivanishvili. And although this is only one version explaining the reasons for Aliyev's visit to Tbilisi, it seems that Moscow is seriously concerned and does not rule out that Georgia is on the verge of joining the EU. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova threatened to include Georgia in the list of unfriendly countries and apply economic pressure if it joins the European Union. This is a very unusual statement, considering that Georgian Dream is usually praised in Moscow for its pragmatic policy towards Russia and its steadfastness in confronting the West. " Zakharova justified this shift from favor to anger by stating that if a country joins the EU, it means "forced accession" to anti-Russian sanctions. "What will this mean for Georgia specifically? For example, the cessation of air traffic with Russia, the introduction of a strict visa regime. Russia would have to include – I'm not saying we want to do it – but, given the new EU requirements, Russia would have to include Georgia in the list of countries with unfriendly regimes and extend its retaliatory economic measures to it, with all the ensuing consequences for Georgian producers of mineral water, fruits, wine, everything that is brought into our country," said Zakharova. The European Union as a whole is not suitable for Georgia, believes the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, as it "imposes completely unfounded sanctions, provokes new anti-Russian military adventures, almost openly supports coup attempts, imposes alien anti-values on the Georgian people," and "literally forces them to abandon their own culture and identity."