politics
March 19, 2026
America’s Iran war is breaking the deal at the heart of its alliances
As Washington pushes allies into a widening Iran crisis, the core bargain of protection for loyalty is eroding – with long-term global consequences.
TL;DR
- The 20th-century alliance system, based on strong powers offering protection for loyalty, is weakening globally.
- Western Europe's increasing dependence on US security guarantees has maintained alliance cohesion until now.
- The current Middle East crisis, particularly US actions concerning Iran, is making allies uncomfortable due to disregard for norms and actions that undermine security.
- The US is asking allies to help resolve a crisis it helped create, raising questions about the patron-client relationship.
- European NATO members, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Australia are hesitant to join the conflict, choosing to resist US wishes.
- Gulf monarchies are in a precarious position, caught in the conflict zone and hosting US bases that have become targets.
- While alliances may appear unified after the crisis, the long-term consequences of the patron acting solely in its own interest could lead to allies seeking alternatives.
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