Russian passengers may not notice it yet, but Russia’s war is starting to bite at the fuel pump in the sky. A jet fuel squeeze is forcing airports to ration kerosene, even as officials insist everything is under control.

Opposition-leaning outlets paint a picture of a system quietly hitting its limits. The Insider reports that Ukrainian drone strikes have taken out roughly a quarter of Russia’s refining capacity, with NOTAMs now imposing explicit caps on how much fuel aircraft can take on at multiple airports, including Makhachkala, Mineralnye Vody, Krasnodar, Astrakhan, and Nizhny Novgorod.¹ In Makhachkala, the notice “introduces restrictions on refueling with jet fuel,” setting hard limits per route — for example, no more than 8,000 kg for Dubai and 3,500 kg for Minsk — and forcing charters into case‑by‑case approvals.¹

Meduza, another opposition outlet, underscores the same pattern: airports “have begun warning of restrictions on aircraft refueling,” with Astrakhan explicitly saying it will only refuel “in the volume specified in the flight plan.”² The specialist channel Aviation Mezzanine is cited stressing that safety isn’t yet compromised — mandatory reserves are still loaded — but warning these NOTAMs are “an indirect signal that aviation fuel availability in Russia is declining.”²

On policy, the contrast is stark. The Insider notes a temporary ban on jet fuel exports until November 2026, aimed at stabilizing the domestic market.¹ Meduza, by contrast, focuses on the government’s messaging: while imposing a six‑month export curb from June 1, the Transport Ministry insists “there is currently no shortage.”²

The upshot: opposition media see structural strain masked by bureaucratic calm. The state line is that everything is fine. The NOTAMs say otherwise.