economy
Normality of economic slowdown and energy crisis: statements by Novak
The Russian deputy prime minister said that consumer activity will slow down this year, though the slowdown in demand will not "limit long-term and sustainable economic growth"
TL;DR
- Economic dynamics are cyclical, with periods of high growth followed by corrections, considered a normal stage.
- Inflation is expected to approach 5.2% in 2026 and target 4% by 2027.
- GDP growth is projected at 0.4% in the current year, with recovery to 1.4%-2.4% from 2027 to 2029.
- Consumer activity will slow this year but is not expected to limit long-term growth.
- Predictable fiscal policy is seen as key to reducing inflation risks and normalizing interest rates.
- Systemic work is needed to develop financial and long-term savings markets, including stimulating IPOs.
- Investment activity is set to resume growth in 2027 as production capacity balances demand.
- Real wages grew by 4.4% last year, and poverty fell to a historical minimum of 6.7% by the end of 2025.
- Unemployment is expected to remain low, between 2.3-2.4% in 2026.
- Real income of the Russian population increased by 26.1% over three years, the highest rate in two decades.
- Growing energy export prices are strengthening the ruble but this effect is not long-term.
- Russia does not view the Middle East energy crisis as an additional source for budgetary solutions.
- Global oil prices could fall below pre-crisis levels if the Middle East conflict prolongs, impacting global GDP growth.
- The departure of foreign companies has boosted production growth in almost all sectors of the Russian economy due to import substitution needs.