Putin Comments on Fuel Crisis and Again Talks About Taking Kupyansk. "Novaya-Europe" Checked His Words - Here's What's Really Happening with Gasoline, Air Defense, and the Front

Vladimir Putin gave an interview to propagandist Pavel Zarubin. The transcript was published on the Kremlin's website and on Zarubin's Telegram channel. As journalist Farida Rustamova noted, Putin read his text from a teleprompter, squinting and looking aside. In 25 minutes, Putin managed to comment on the fuel crisis in Russia, Ukrainian strikes on refineries, air defense failures, and the situation on the front. He called the gasoline problems "not critical," the recovery of refineries "fast," and attributed non-existent successes on the front to himself. "Novaya-Europe" checked his statements and compared them with data from DeepState, ISW, Reuters, and its own calculations. Vladimir Putin during an interview with Pavel Zarubin, Moscow, June 28, 2026. Photo: Gavriil Grigorov / EPA. Fuel Crisis: There is a deficit, but it is not critical Vladimir Putin admitted that Ukrainian strikes on infrastructure "create problems" and there is "a certain deficit" in the supply of Crimea and Sevastopol, but, according to Putin, it is "not critical." In reality: the deficit is throughout Russia and in Crimea. Not only in Crimea and Sevastopol, but also in most Russian regions, fuel problems are being recorded. As of June 29, according to "Novaya-Europe's" calculations, the fuel crisis has affected at least 78 regions of Russia, as well as annexed territories. Authorities are directly talking about a deficit and even introducing restrictions on the sale of gasoline and diesel. In some places, this is directly explained by refinery repairs, in others, they talk about "exaggeration." At the same time, as "Novaya-Europe" experts said, the army is supplied on a priority basis - the deficit at the front is indeed not critical yet. However, difficulties in delivering fuel to the front line are already noticeable in some areas - for example, in the Zaporizhzhia region. Experts predict that a deficit in the troops may begin in August-September 2026, by which time the synergistic effect of strikes on refineries and warehouses should manifest. Refinery Recovery: Everything is Fast and Not Critical "All damaged facilities are recovering quite quickly, and the emerging problems are not of a critical nature. Everything is working stably with a large margin of safety," Putin said. In reality: recovery will take at least six months, gasoline production has fallen by 25%. Since the beginning of intensive Ukrainian bombings, which began at the end of April - early May and have only intensified since then, 16 refineries in Russia have been completely or partially stopped for almost two months, according to calculations by "Novaya-Europe's" economic observer Denis Morokhin. They process about 40% of the oil, which accounts for about the same amount of gasoline production in the country and about 44% of diesel fuel production. Their repairs, as our observer predicts, will take at least weeks, if not months. For example, the Moscow refinery of "Gazpromneft" (in Kapotnya), attacked by drones on June 16 and 18, completely stopped production. Both primary oil refining units are out of order. According to Reuters sources, recovery will take at least six months, and in the worst case, up to 2027. In 2024, the plant processed 11.6 million tons of oil, supplying more than a third of the fuel to Moscow. As a result, gasoline production in the week of June 15-21 decreased by 25% compared to last year's figures - to 85 thousand tons per day, with summer consumption of 110 thousand tons. The deficit in the domestic market is estimated at about 20%. " Wholesale fuel prices in Russia have increased by tens of percent, and retail prices at some gas stations have risen several times higher than the inflation accumulated since the beginning of the year. Air Defense: Protective Measures Exist and They Work According to Putin, it is necessary to "quickly and significantly increase the production of the most in-demand air defense systems" given that Ukraine is using improved drones with new technologies. "All these protective measures actually exist. The issue is the speed of increasing their production and supply to the troops or for covering critical infrastructure facilities," Putin said. In reality: the air defense system is ineffective even in the most protected Moscow region. As "Novaya-Europe" wrote, the air defense system in the Moscow region demonstrated low effectiveness against Ukrainian drones due to tactical errors, technical shortcomings, and unsuitable urban development conditions. For instance, long-range detection systems missed a wave of drones, and there was no alarm signal. As a result, short-range complexes ("Pantsir-S1") were forced to work "inside the perimeter," which led to radar failures, originally tuned to external targets. In addition, according to experts, missiles with thermal homing heads choose the hottest target, and oil facilities glow brighter in the infrared spectrum than a drone, so the missiles may go after the refinery infrastructure instead of the drone (this explains the hits on the plant in Kapotnya). Also, videos of attacks on Moscow often feature shooting from various small arms - apparently, mostly from assault rifles and machine guns. However, it is ineffective: random hits do not stop a drone, and there is no universal way to combat different types of UAVs. Covering the vast city of Moscow with mobile fire groups is practically impossible. Pavel Zarubin and Vladimir Putin during an interview, Moscow, June 28, 2026. Photo: Gavriil Grigorov / EPA. Negotiations with Ukraine: There were proposals, but the plan benefits Ukraine Putin stated that negotiation channels with Ukraine exist and that there are "new proposals" from the Ukrainian side. The first is to stop strikes deep into territories from both sides. Putin claims that "retaliatory strikes deep into Ukrainian territory are much more powerful, sensitive, and frankly destructive, leading to really serious consequences for the Kyiv regime." The second is to limit hostilities to only four territories (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions), stopping fighting in all other areas. Putin claims that this plan benefits Ukraine, as it would allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to withdraw troops from Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions: "Given the catastrophic shortage of personnel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they apparently believe that this could be their salvation. But saving the Kyiv regime is not part of our plans," he stated. In reality: Ukraine is not in a catastrophic situation now. Russia's advance, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), is ongoing but extremely slow: about 40 square kilometers in six months, including infiltrations, while Russian troops have lost control of about 281 square kilometers. The pace has slowed to 8% of last year's. As ISW notes, Ukrainian forces have largely managed to stop the Russian offensive in the spring-summer of 2026. Currently, Russian troops are in a worse position than since the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2022, said Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group, in an interview with "Novaya-Europe." According to him, it is pointless to evaluate Putin's report in terms of its accuracy - "it is a set of fakes and disinformation." According to the expert, "in the southern directions, Russia is losing territory much faster than it is capturing new areas, and the growing logistical lockdown imposed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine has disrupted the supply of fuel and ammunition to the units. "These are very dire indicators for Russia," the expert concluded. "They could lead to a real crisis, during which Russian troops will lose combat capability and the ability to conduct military operations." As The Economist wrote, Russia's expected spring offensive failed, and in April, Russian troops lost more territory than they captured for the first time since August 2024. Ukraine has taken the initiative for the first time in almost three years, and experts, including Professor of Military Studies at King's College London Lawrence Freedman, speak of a "turning point": if Russia cannot counter Ukrainian drones, the front could begin to crumble. The decrease in the volume of territories captured by Russia is likely not related to seasonal weather changes that traditionally hinder advancement, ISW analysts emphasize. The main reasons are Ukraine's ground counteroffensive and successful Ukrainian medium-range drone strikes (middle strike) with the latest technologies. It is with their help that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are attacking Russian refineries. Battlefield: "Sumy is 10.5 km away, and Kupyansk is 2.5 to 4–5 km away" - and other figures According to Putin, Russian troops are "about 10.5 km" from the city of Sumy. He also stated that the Russian army is "2.5 to 4–5 km away from the western outskirts of Kupyansk." In addition, according to him, on the left bank of the "Stary Oskol" river, Russian troops have "practically completely blocked" a Ukrainian group of about 5,000 people. Putin also commented on the situation in Lyman, Sloviansk, and Kostyantynivka. In reality: analysts refute these figures Sumy: According to the Ukrainian project DeepState, since the end of April 2026, Russian troops have not expanded their zone of control in the Sumy region, "Aгентство" noted. As Ruslan Mikula, co-founder of DeepState, claims, the distance from the RF Armed Forces control line to Sumy is now about 17.8 km. Over the year, this distance has decreased not by 10 km, as stated by Putin, but by only 0.3 km (from 18.1 km a year ago). Military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group, Oleksandr Kovalenko, called Putin's words either "unsubstantiated fantasy" or "simply brazen lies for the domestic consumer." The expert emphasized that Russian troops are only registering small tactical advances in the border gray zone, and the Russian army is struggling to "bite off 1-2 kilometers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine," but this movement does not lead directly to Sumy. In the main theater of military operations in this region, Russia has had no real gains since January 2026, the expert told "Novaya-Europe." "In the main theater of military operations in this region, the Russian army has had no real gains since January of this year. From Alekseevka to Yunakovka, where the line of confrontation is today, it is about 20 kilometers to Sumy. And it is in this sector that the RF Armed Forces have fallen into complete hibernation. There is no threat of capturing the regional center. The Russian group of troops "Kursk," concentrated in this direction, lacks the strength and resources for this," he stated. Pavel Zarubin and Vladimir Putin, Moscow, June 28, 2026. Photo: Gavriil Grigorov / EPA. Kupyansk: Also, according to DeepState maps, from Russian positions to the western outskirts of Kupyansk, it is at least 6 km, and it remains under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, "Aгентство" notes. DeepState maps also do not show the capture of the city. Kovalenko, in an interview with "Novaya-Europe," noted that it is not entirely clear what the "western edge" of Kupyansk means, as the city itself is under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or in the gray zone. He may have meant the village of Radkovka, located 2-4 kilometers from Kupyansk, but even this village is controlled by the Ukrainian side, the expert emphasized. He recalled that in 2025, Russian military leaders Gerasimov and Belousov, as well as Putin himself, repeatedly spoke of the complete capture of Kupyansk by the Russian army. "So when were they lying - then or now?" Kovalenko asks. The "Stary Oskol" River: such a river does not exist. Putin likely meant the Oskil River, which flows through the Kharkiv region. Stary Oskol is a city in the Belgorod region of Russia, located more than 100 km from the border with Ukraine. As analyst Kirill Mikhailov told "Aгентство," "there is no encirclement there, as well as in the Kupyansk-Uzlovoy area." As noted in "Mozhem ob"yasnit," this error by Putin was removed from the transcript on the Kremlin's website. Putin also spoke of a "practically blocked" group of Ukrainian troops in the Rubtsov area, numbering about 5,000 people. Kovalenko noted that the settlement of Rubtsy, which is being discussed, is located 10 km from the line of contact, i.e., in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Talking about the encirclement of an entire brigade in a small village of 2.5 km, according to him, is Putin's "persistent fantasy." The expert added that Putin, not being a professional in military affairs, "simply calls out some names and numbers from reports": "Moreover, he again mentioned Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. The Russian side claimed to have surrounded a significant group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there. And where is this group in the end? Why is nothing heard about the victory of the Russian army? Where are the tricolors flying over the town? None of this is happening," says Kovalenko. Lyman. Putin claimed that "149 houses out of 11,000 remain to be liberated here." Kovalenko, in an interview with "Novaya-Europe," acknowledged that in the Lyman area, Russian assault groups are indeed infiltrating the urban area through the industrial zone, but most of the city remains under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and is a gray zone. The statement that Russia controls the lion's share of buildings "completely does not correspond to reality," says the expert. Sloviansk. Putin reported that the 3rd Army of the Southern Group "is moving at a good pace towards the city of Sloviansk, has entered the settlement of Mykolaivka," and allegedly only 8-9 km remain to Sloviansk itself. Kovalenko noted that the 3rd Army does have tactical advances in the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk direction, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine can slow them down for now, but not stop them. However, from an operational point of view, as the expert analyzes, Russian troops have reached a line of villages: Kriva Luka, Rai-Alexandrovka, Tikhonovka, and others. "If we talk about Mykolaivka, which Putin mentioned, it is currently about ten kilometers from the front line. No Russian units have entered there. This is a fake. To Sloviansk itself, it is slightly more than 15 kilometers from the line of contact. And if we count through Mykolaivka, the distance is about 20 kilometers. Putin has halved the real distances in his speech and calls settlements that are not even close to being controlled by Russia as captured," Kovalenko also says. Kostyantynivka. Putin announced that "96% of the city is in our hands," that the 4th Brigade is clearing it, and the 6th Division has bypassed Kostyantynivka and reached Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka. Kovalenko acknowledged that the situation in Kostyantynivka is difficult, but "there is no question of controlling 96% of the city." According to him, there are about 150 Russian infantrymen in the city who infiltrated in small groups. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to his information, have deployed additional drone systems and an assault battalion to the city, which allows them to maintain control over most of the city and conduct remote clearing. "No Russian units have approached Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka. The area around this settlement and for several kilometers towards the front is a zone of control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Kovalenko stated in an interview with "Novaya-Europe."