February 5, 2026
Gulf buddies: Arab monarchies are squabbling over regional standing, fossil fuels, and Trump’s attention
The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered a particularly heated phase in late December when Riyadh’s forces struck a shipment to a Yemeni port under Abu Dhabi’s control. A new war in the Gulf did not break out this time, but the conflict between the two monarchies is just one in a long line of areas of competition among the region’s main players, who are competing for territory, resources, and the favor of Donald Trump.
TL;DR
- Saudi Arabia attacked a Yemeni port targeting UAE-supplied weapons to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), citing national security threats.
- The UAE's strategy involves consolidating influence through sponsored groups like the STC, leading to clashes with Saudi-aligned forces.
- The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE influences conflicts and mediations in Sudan, a humanitarian crisis exacerbated by regional tensions.
- Both nations are vying for influence in Africa, particularly in Libya and the Horn of Africa, using economic and military partnerships.
- Competition extends to lobbying efforts in Washington, media influence, and technological development, particularly in AI.
- Shifting alliances are evident, with Saudi Arabia normalizing ties with Iran and improving relations with Turkey and Qatar, while the UAE strengthens ties with Israel.
- The "Middle Eastern NATO" concept remains elusive due to persistent disagreements among Gulf monarchies, leading to a focus on regional and international influence.
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