economy
April 15, 2026
Oil, gas prices could rise by 100% and 200% in prolonged war with Iran
The International Monetary Fund has outlined three scenarios for further global economic developments, taking into account the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran
TL;DR
- The IMF has developed three scenarios for global economic development based on a potential war involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
- In the most adverse scenario, oil prices could rise by 100% and gas prices by 200% by 2026-2027.
- This severe scenario projects oil prices around $110 per barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027.
- A less adverse scenario forecasts an 80% rise in oil prices from Q2 2026, decreasing to 20% above baseline in 2027, with gas prices up 160%.
- The most optimistic scenario anticipates a 19% increase in energy prices in 2026, with oil prices rising by 21.4%.
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