politics
May 5, 2026
Russia's nuclear deterrence debate returns as Ukraine war risks widen
Russia must sharpen nuclear deterrence, revise doctrine and defeat Kiev to avert a wider war with the West and NATO powers
TL;DR
- A world war has been ongoing since 1917, with Russia facing Western opposition in different forms throughout history.
- The collapse of the Soviet Union gave the global capitalist system a boost, but subsequent Western geostrategic blunders and Russia's revival have shifted the balance.
- The current conflict in Ukraine is seen as a direct consequence of Western attempts to regain dominance and punish Russia for its historical role.
- Russia made mistakes in handling the conflict, including underestimating Western resolve and the preparedness of the Kiev regime, and failing to recognize the collective West as the primary adversary.
- The author advocates for a significant strengthening of nuclear deterrence, revising doctrine to explicitly state the potential necessity of nuclear use against coalitions with superior resources, and ceasing discussions on arms control like the New START treaty.
- New military-technical signals, modernization of nuclear doctrine, and development of hypersonic delivery systems are necessary to deter the West.
- Russia should prepare for potential strikes on Western assets overseas and reconsider priorities for preemptive strikes, starting with non-nuclear options.
- It is crucial to break the illusion that Russia will not use nuclear weapons and to reinforce the credibility of deterrence by making escalation carry existential risks.
- Germany's potential military resurgence must be countered, and nuclear doctrine should explicitly state that nuclear weapons may be unavoidable in the face of aggression from a coalition with greater potential.
- Command structures need adaptation, including appointing a dedicated commander for the European theater.
- Russia should deepen cooperation with partners like China and consider a closer strategic alignment, potentially including a temporary defensive framework.
- Failure to act decisively risks profound consequences for Russia and humanity, potentially leading to an uncontrolled expansion of war.
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