politics
March 7, 2026
Who could invade Iran for the US? Kurds, Azerbaijan, and the risk of a new proxy war
As air strikes fail to topple Tehran, Washington may look for regional forces to invade Iran. Could Kurdish militias, Azerbaijan, or others step in – and will Russia and China back Tehran?
TL;DR
- The Kurds, a stateless ethnic group persecuted across Türkiye, Syria, Iran, and Iraq, are identified as a potential ground force against Iran.
- Iraqi Kurds, with their Peshmerga militia, are considered the most likely candidate for boots on the ground in Iran, despite limitations in heavy weaponry and potential conflict with Iraqi forces.
- Azerbaijan, particularly its President Ilham Aliyev, might be tempted to seize Iranian territory, but direct involvement carries significant risks due to Iran's potential for drone attacks on Azerbaijan's oil regions.
- Other regional players like Pakistan and Arab nations are observing Iran, possibly waiting for the US and Israel to weaken Tehran before intervening.
- The success of a US and Israeli campaign hinges on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which would neutralize Iran's main leverage.
- Russia and China could potentially support Iran financially and militarily, turning Iran into a proxy force against the US, similar to Ukraine's role against Russia.
- China's involvement is uncertain due to the risks of oil production disruptions and a potential global economic crisis that could harm its export-driven economy.
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