economy

February 14, 2026

Bank of Russia cuts key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15.5% per annum

The regulator noted that it would assess the need for a further key rate cut at its upcoming meetings

Bank of Russia cuts key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15.5% per annum

TL;DR

  • The Bank of Russia reduced the key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15.5% per annum.
  • The economy is returning to balanced growth, but underlying price growth measures have not changed significantly.
  • Disinflation is expected to continue after one-off factors fade.
  • The key rate forecast corridor for the end of 2026 has been narrowed to 13.5-14.5%.
  • The average key rate forecast for 2027 is now 8-9%, and for 2028 it remains 7.5-8.5%.
  • Annual inflation is projected to decline to 4.5-5.5% in 2026 and remain on target in 2027 and beyond.
  • GDP growth for 2025 reached 1%, with growth in overall economic activity slowing but accelerating in Q4 2025 due to higher consumer demand.
  • Domestic demand growth is expected to moderate, and business sentiment reflects this.
  • Labor market tightness is decreasing, though unemployment is at historical lows and wage growth outpaces labor productivity.
  • Russian economy is forecast to grow by 0.5-1.5% by the end of 2026 and 1.5-2.5% in 2027-2028.
  • The forecast for the taxable price of a barrel of oil in 2026 was lowered to $45, and for 2027 and 2028 to $50 and $55, respectively.

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