Tanking it. Ukrainian drone strikes have disabled one sixth of Russia’s oil refining capacity and led to a protracted fuel crisis

December 30, 2025

TL;DR

Ukrainian drones have disabled 17% of Russian oil refining capacity.
The current fuel shortage is the longest since the war began and is expected to last until at least winter, potentially into 2026.
40 attacks on Russian oil refineries have occurred this year, with 25 resulting in partial or complete shutdowns.
The crisis is longer than usual due to drone strikes, scheduled maintenance, and high interest rates affecting smaller gas stations.
Average gasoline prices have increased by 7.2% since January 1, while inflation was 4%.
Short-term measures like banning gasoline exports until October are not working.
Systemic solutions include refining oil in Belarus and addressing the state-regulated fuel price model or lifting sanctions on refining equipment.
Dampener payments to oil companies have proven ineffective in the long term.
Increasing mandatory fuel sales on the stock exchange is proposed as a way to make fuel more affordable.

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