economy
April 25, 2026
Bank of Russia cuts key rate for third consecutive time since start of year
The regulator noted that it would assess the need for further key rate cuts at its upcoming meetings
TL;DR
- Bank of Russia cut key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% per annum.
- Domestic demand dynamics are approaching supply capacity, but underlying price growth indicators are stable.
- Significant uncertainty exists regarding the external environment and fiscal policy parameters.
- Future rate decisions will depend on inflation slowdown sustainability, expectations, and risk analysis.
- Baseline scenario projects an average key rate of 14-14.5% in 2026 and 8-10% in 2027.
- Annual inflation is forecast to decline to 4.5-5.5% in 2026, with underlying inflation near 4% in H2 2026.
- Inflation expectations remain elevated, potentially hindering a sustainable inflation slowdown.
- The Russian economy slowed in Q1 2026 due to tax changes, fewer business days, and unfavorable weather.
- Labor market tightness is gradually decreasing, with unemployment at historical lows.
- Monetary conditions have eased but remain tight, with non-price bank lending conditions still restrictive.
- Proinflationary risks, including global economic outlook deterioration and high inflation expectations, prevail over disinflationary ones.
- Oil price forecast for tax purposes in 2026 was raised from $45 to $65 per barrel.
- Forecasts for corporate and mortgage lending growth have been narrowed.
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