Dmitry Trenin: America First goes global

February 1, 2026

TL;DR

The US National Security and Defense Strategies mark a departure from liberal interventionism and nation-building.
The new strategy emphasizes preserving American military superiority and concentrating resources.
Homeland defense and the Western Hemisphere are the top priorities, aiming for restored US dominance.
The Indo-Pacific and containment of China are the second priority, using deterrence and allied rearmament.
Alliances are expected to be more transactional, with allies bearing greater defense costs and following US policy.
Russia's role is downgraded from a direct threat to a "persistent" challenge, primarily for NATO.
The US appears to prioritize freedom of action in developing its strategic arsenal over arms control with Russia.
For Russia, this signals a prolonged period of structured rivalry with the US, requiring strengthened deterrence and internal stability.
Russia's strategy involves strengthening Arctic defense, deepening partnerships with China, and counterbalancing US pressure in the Middle East.
The US strategy is characterized by consolidation and reprioritization, leading to a more selective and force-based form of hegemony.

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