Sea change. The Caspian, the world’s largest inland sea, is fast shrinking due to the climate emergency

December 30, 2025

TL;DR

The Caspian Sea's water level is declining rapidly due to climate change, with some areas experiencing a retreat of over 50km.
This decline threatens unique ecosystems, including habitats for flamingos, sturgeon, and Caspian seals, as well as impacting fishing and shipping industries.
Water levels have dropped significantly since the turn of the century, with drops of up to 30cm per year since 2020.
Global warming is the primary driver, increasing evaporation and reducing river inflow, with potential drops of up to 18 meters under high emission scenarios.
Even an optimistic 10-meter decline would expose 112,000 square kilometers of seabed, leading to ecological disaster and health risks from toxic dust.
Millions of people are at risk of displacement, and infrastructure like ports and shipping lanes are becoming stranded or require costly dredging.
Countries are attempting to adapt by relocating ports and dredging channels, but these measures risk conflicting with conservation goals.
An integrated, forward-looking approach to regional planning and international cooperation is crucial to protect both human interests and ecosystems.
The Caspian Sea's fate serves as a case study for climate change impacts on major inland water bodies globally.

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