economy

March 21, 2026

Bank of Russia cuts key rate by 0.5 p.p. to 15% second time this year

According to the regulator, the Russian economy is approaching a balanced growth path

Bank of Russia cuts key rate by 0.5 p.p. to 15% second time this year

TL;DR

  • The Bank of Russia lowered its key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15% per annum.
  • The economy is seen as approaching a balanced growth path, with price growth decelerating.
  • Uncertainty regarding the external environment has increased significantly.
  • Future rate cuts will be contingent on inflation slowdown sustainability, inflation expectations, and risk assessments.
  • The Bank of Russia forecasts annual inflation to decline to 4.5-5.5% in 2026 and stay on target in 2027 and beyond.
  • Annual inflation stood at 5.9% as of March 16, 2026.
  • Inflation expectations remain elevated, potentially hindering a sustained inflation slowdown.
  • Economic activity growth has slowed in early 2026, with consumer demand cooling and business sentiment indicating more moderate domestic demand.

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