politics
March 13, 2026
In Iran, the US has bitten off more than it can chew
Washington, like many times before, projects its own assumptions onto a political culture it only half understands
TL;DR
- The current acute phase of the US-Israeli war against Iran is estimated to last approximately ten more days.
- Iran's resilience is deeply rooted in its civilizational depth and Shiite political imagination, predating the republic itself.
- External pressure often strengthens Iranian cohesion by turning domestic anger outward and empowering resistance.
- US miscalculations include overestimating liberal-material incentives and underestimating the force of memory, faith, and sovereign pride.
- The campaign has increased sympathy for Iran globally, with many viewing it as a major power using force to preserve an unequal order.
- Europe's rift with Washington is widening, marked by discomfort and fear of strategic drift.
- Gulf states are reassessing US guarantees, leading to a greater focus on self-defense and the possibility of abandonment.
- The war's economic consequences, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, are increasing, potentially leading to global recessionary pressure.
- Russia is positioning itself as a mediator, facilitating communication between Tehran and Washington.
- The conflict is part of a larger movement toward the destruction of the old international order, exposing the fragility of existing institutions.
- Iran needs reforms and competence, not just sacrifice, to address structural weaknesses for future challenges.
- This phase is an interval, not a finale, as the deeper conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran remains unresolved due to irreconcilable agendas.
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