The youngest nation breaks: Is a new civil war on the horizon?

February 20, 2026

TL;DR

Renewed fighting between the SSPDF and SPLM/A-IO factions has escalated in South Sudan, particularly in Jonglei State, since late 2025.
The violence threatens to undermine the 2018 peace agreement, with over 200 deaths and 280,000 displaced in Jonglei State alone by January 2026.
Key political actions, including the arrest of Riek Machar and dismissal of Angelina Teny, have heightened tensions and are seen as violations of the peace accord.
The White Army, a community-based Nuer militia, plays a significant role in the conflict, operating autonomously but often aligning with opposition objectives.
The humanitarian situation is dire, with widespread displacement, food shortages, and risks of malnutrition, exacerbated by ongoing conflict and natural disasters.
The 2018 peace agreement's implementation has stalled, with unfulfilled conditions like establishing a permanent constitution and conducting a national census.
The upcoming December 2026 elections are overshadowed by the current instability, with fears that they could further inflame tensions.
The crisis has regional implications, affecting neighboring countries through refugee influxes and strained diplomatic relations.
Meaningful progress towards dialogue remains elusive, and without effective mediation, South Sudan risks a greater humanitarian and political disaster.

Continue reading
the original article