December 30, 2025

Stalling growth, falling oil prices, and the civilian sector sacrificed Meduza’s top five takeaways on the Russian economy heading into 2026

The state of Russia’s economy has been one of the most difficult topics to assess during the wartime period. Contrary to apocalyptic forecasts by experts, the country weathered the sanctions shock of 2022 and even returned to economic growth — driven largely by ballooning military spending, but also by high energy prices and, in some cases, a successful reconfiguration of disrupted supply chains. Those buffers, however, were not unlimited. By 2025, accumulated risks had reached a critical point. Growth has all but stalled, oil prices have fallen, and the Kremlin is finding itself increasingly short on funds to finance its war in Ukraine. The government has turned to unpopular measures, including higher taxes on businesses and households. Even so, the economy is not yet on the brink of collapse. Meduza lays out five key takeaways from the past year — and the trends that could shape developments in 2026.