economy
March 10, 2026
Will Russia benefit from rising oil prices due to the US-Israeli war on Iran?
The US-Israeli war on Iran has sent oil prices skyrocketing, and Russia stands to gain in the immediate term
TL;DR
- The US-Israeli war in the Middle East has caused a global energy crisis and increased oil prices.
- Around 40% of the world's oil comes from the Middle East, with oilfields and refineries in range of Iran's missiles and drones.
- The Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for oil, is effectively closed due to Iranian actions and insurance issues, leading Gulf states to reduce production.
- Brent oil prices have increased by almost $20 since the war began, reaching $91 per barrel.
- Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer, benefits from higher prices as it is not involved in the conflict.
- Russian Urals crude is trading above the Western price cap and even above Brent prices in some markets, boosting Russian budget revenues.
- Western nations view rising Russian oil revenues as a negative outcome, with the EU calling for more sanctions against Russia.
- The US has implemented measures like tariffs and waivers to manage the impact of rising oil prices, particularly concerning India's oil imports.
- Experts predict further price increases, with potential for oil prices to reach $130 per barrel and warnings of a prolonged situation if the Strait remains closed.
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