politics
March 16, 2026
After Iran, is Turkey next on Israel's menu?
If Tehran is crushed, the Middle East will go from a tense equilibrium to a violent detonation, and Ankara may very well be the next target
TL;DR
- Turkey unequivocally opposes the Israeli-American military campaign against Iran, viewing it as a step toward regional catastrophe.
- Ankara's stance is motivated by fears of widespread destabilization, economic repercussions (particularly regarding energy supplies and the Strait of Hormuz), and the potential for Turkey to become Israel's next target.
- President Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Fidan have repeatedly condemned the strikes, called for diplomacy, and warned of grave consequences for regional and global security.
- Turkey's position is not based on alliance with Iran but on the belief that forcibly dismantling Iran would be more destructive to regional order than maintaining a fragile balance.
- The conflict has already reached Turkey's borders, with Iranian missiles entering Turkish airspace, highlighting the immediate threat and Ankara's need for self-defense.
- Turkey's policy is characterized as pragmatic self-preservation, aiming to prevent the conflict from spreading to its territory and interests.
- Ankara sees the current actions as part of a broader Israeli strategy to remake the region, with Turkey potentially facing pressure after Iran.
- The Turkish leadership draws lessons from past interventions in the Middle East, recognizing the destructive potential of such actions on a larger scale with Iran.
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