politics
February 22, 2026
Is the Middle East entering a nuclear arms race?
Iran’s contested program, Israel’s ambiguity, and Türkiye’s reassessment of deterrence could redefine the region’s security architecture
TL;DR
- Iran asserts its nuclear program is for peaceful energy diversification, citing a religious edict against nuclear weapons and NPT obligations.
- Neighboring countries perceive Iran's nuclear capability as a strategic threat due to the potential for rapid military adaptation.
- A nuclear Iran could lead to a domino effect, forcing regional powers like Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to pursue nuclear capabilities.
- Israel's official policy of nuclear ambiguity influences regional perceptions and Iran's 'asymmetric deterrence' strategy.
- Türkiye, as a NATO member, is reassessing its security assurances due to regional shifts and questions about alliance reliability.
- The financial and diplomatic costs of Türkiye developing nuclear weapons are extremely high, including sanctions and isolation.
- Turkish officials have expressed concerns about regional arms races and criticized the 'structural injustice' of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
- Currently, the geopolitical and political costs for Türkiye to develop nuclear weapons outweigh the benefits, but the discussion signifies a reevaluation of security assurances.
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