February 18, 2026

Divergent trends: Why a growing economy can still leave many people poorer

The declining levels of trust in political institutions and the growing support for populist politicians observed in a range of counties in recent years may have economic roots: global economic growth has stopped automatically translating into middle-class prosperity. For millennials and the children of Gen Z, the social elevator has not merely slowed down — it has stalled on the lower floors. In the United States, the likelihood that a child will ultimately earn more than their parents has fallen from 90% for those born in the 1940s to 50% for the 1980s generation. On paper, incomes are rising, but inflation in the key “tickets to the middle class” — housing and education — is outpacing wage growth severalfold, rendering the standard enjoyed by previous generations unattainable to an increasing proportion of young people. In Russia, this global trend has taken the form of “well-fed poverty.” While state regulation of prices for the “borscht basket” curbs the threat of hunger and absolute destitution, the cost of essential assets — from real estate to healthcare and cars — has become prohibitively high.