politics
January 30, 2026
No treaty, no rules? What the expiration of New START means for deterrence, transparency, and global order
Why the collapse of the US-Russia arms control framework is more about transparency and missile defense than a new arms race
TL;DR
- New START treaty expires February 5, removing legal limits on global nuclear arsenals.
- Treaty limits deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 for both Russia and the US.
- Russia possesses 4,309 warheads and the US has 3,700 as of January 2025.
- Experts believe a rapid arms race is unlikely due to existing deterrence systems.
- The US may focus on developing missile defense systems.
- The expiration will lead to a decline in transparency and trust between nuclear powers.
- Russia suspended participation in the treaty in 2023, citing escalating tensions.
- China's growing nuclear arsenal (approx. 600 warheads) complicates arms reduction talks.
- France and the UK's nuclear arsenals are also not restricted by deterrence doctrine.
- Non-nuclear states may criticize nuclear-armed states for failing to pursue disarmament.
- Focus may shift to defensive measures and missile defense systems after treaty expiration.