World Bank warns Middle East war to drive 24% energy price surge

April 30, 2026

TL;DR

The Middle East war has caused the biggest global energy supply shock on record.
Global supply has been cut by about 10 million barrels per day.
Energy prices are expected to jump by 24% this year, with overall commodity costs rising by 16%.
If the conflict intensifies, oil could average $115 per barrel this year.
Natural gas prices are also forecast to rise, with the EU being particularly exposed.
Fertilizer prices are projected to climb by 31%, and metals such as aluminum, copper, and tin are expected to hit record highs.
The poorest people and developing economies will be hit the hardest.
Brent crude briefly topped $117 per barrel amid supply concerns and the UAE's exit from OPEC.
Inflation is likely to remain elevated globally due to disruptions in oil and commodity markets.
Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk for further price increases.

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