economy
February 14, 2026
Bank of Russia cuts key rate to 15.5% per annum: regulator’s statements, expert views
Most analysts expected the Central Bank to keep the key rate at 16%
TL;DR
- Bank of Russia lowered the key rate to 15.5% from 16%.
- Underlying price growth measures remain unchanged.
- Unemployment is at historical lows, with wage growth outpacing productivity.
- Labor market tightness and economic deviation from balanced growth are decreasing.
- GDP growth forecast for 2026 remains 0.5-1.5%.
- Forecast for average key rate until end of 2026 is now 13.5-14.5%.
- Annual inflation stood at 6.3% as of February 9.
- Central Bank projects annual inflation to decrease to 4.5-5.5% in 2026.
- Forecast for oil price for tax purposes in 2026 downgraded from $55 to $45.
- Most analysts expected the key rate to remain at 16%.
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